SpaceX — Ownership & Net Price Model

Dual-force model: Price = $63 floor + scarcity premium + index-demand boost. The day-1 close ($160.95) is the anchor — the path starts there. Demand: forced index buying hits at confirmed dates — Russell 1000 Jun 26 (fast-entry, trades Jun 29), MSCI Jun 29, Nasdaq-100 ~Jul 3 (15 trading days) — and the market front-runs it. The Bear is pure supply/scarcity, no free knobs: the day-1 premium holds while float is locked, so it stays ~$161 through the summer (nothing sellable yet), then steps down at every unlock as new shares open for trade — Aug 21 (~$139), Q2 (~$103), Day 180 full unlock (~$70) — toward the $63 floor. It moves only when the lockup schedule releases float. The Bull line is the actual traded tape ($160.95 → ~$192 by day 4, solid green), extended forward at the realized day1→day2 growth (a measured number — no free parameter), capped at 20%/day and decaying as volume normalizes (dashed green), so it asymptotes to a ~$250 ceiling rather than compounding. It's an aggressive momentum upper bound, NOT a fundamental forecast. Hover the chart for exact Bull/Bear values at any day. Day 180 is the Bear's inflection: float jumps from ~14% to ~58% as all pre-IPO institutions unlock, and the demand premium collapses toward the $63 DCF floor by the Musk unlock.

S-1 caveats respected: Specific lockup terms aren't fully disclosed in the S-1 — the staggered schedule is modeled from reporting (standard is 90–180 days). Only Musk (~42%), Alphabet (~7%) and the float are individually disclosed; employee/institutional splits are estimates. Q2/Q3 release dates depend on unannounced earnings dates. The +10% performance pull-forward (if stock ≥$175.50 on 5/10 sessions pre-Q2) would accelerate supply. S&P 500 inclusion is excluded (requires profitability — SpaceX is loss-making). Modeled estimates

Forced buys at the confirmed inclusion dates (Russell 1000 Jun 26 · MSCI Jun 29 · Nasdaq-100 ~Jul 3), grounded in actual fund AUM (QQQ $371B, IWB $47B) and SPCX’s actual volume & volatility. Impact uses the empirical square-root law — observable inputs only, no “amplification” knob.

How it works: each forced buy = that index’s passive AUM × SPCX’s float-adjusted weight, at its confirmed date (Russell Jun 26 · MSCI Jun 29 · Nasdaq-100 ~Jul 3). Mechanical price impact uses the empirical square-root law, impact ≈ σ·√(Q/V) — observable inputs only (Q = total forced buy, V = daily $ volume, σ = daily volatility), coefficient ≈1, no tunable amplification (which is unfalsifiable — you can never observe the no-index counterfactual). Even with all three indexes (~$6B), forced buying is only ~18% of one day’s volume, so the mechanical impact is just ~2–3% — meaning ~85% of the realized +19.6% run is anticipation/momentum, not forced flow. That’s why the Bull line is projected from the measured realized growth, not a flow fudge. Note: MSCI ACWI/World are global, so SPCX’s true weight there is lower than in the US-only indexes — the MSCI line at the shared weight is an upper estimate. Headlines citing $22–27B assume full-cap weighting; FTSE Russell & MSCI float-adjust, so the real flow is far smaller. Estimates · not advice